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This study introduces a new method to analyze how the environment affects the spread of the invasive pine processionary moth (PPM) in France. The research reveals significant spatial variations in PPM fitness, indicating areas where the moth struggles to thrive.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Invasive Species Biology
  • Spatial Analysis

Background:

  • The pine processionary moth (PPM) is an invasive species in France, with its range expansion influenced by environmental factors.
  • Understanding spatial variations in PPM population dynamics is crucial for effective management strategies.
  • Estimating local environmental effects on PPM expansion is challenging due to data type and life cycle complexities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a novel method for analyzing spatial variations in PPM range expansion.
  • To infer the local environmental effect on PPM population expansion using presence-absence nest data.
  • To estimate local PPM fitness, denoted as F(x), across different spatial locations.

Main Methods:

  • A mechanistic-statistical approach combining a statistical observation model with a reaction-diffusion based mechanistic model.
  • Utilizing binary data (presence/absence of PPM nests) to infer environmental influence.
  • Employing Bayesian inference to estimate the spatial fitness parameter F(x).

Main Results:

  • The study successfully estimated spatial variations in PPM fitness (F(x)).
  • Results indicate significant spatial heterogeneity in PPM fitness across France.
  • Large regions with lower PPM fitness were identified, suggesting localized environmental constraints.

Conclusions:

  • The developed method effectively analyzes spatial variations in invasive species range expansion.
  • PPM fitness is not uniform, with identifiable regions of reduced fitness.
  • Further research is needed to determine the environmental factors responsible for lower PPM fitness in specific areas.