[Public health surveillance and assessment of emerging infectious threats: method and criteria for risk analysis]

One of the objectives of the surveillance systems implemented by the French National Institute for Public Health Surveillance is to detect communicable diseases and to reduce their impact. For emerging infections, the detection and risk analysis pose specific challenges due to lack of documented criteria for the event. The surveillance systems detect a variety of events, or "signals" which represent a potential risk, such as a novel germ, a pathogen which may disseminate in a non-endemic area, or an abnormal number of cases for a well-known disease. These signals are first verified and analyzed, then classified as: potential public health threat, event to follow-up, or absence of threat. Through various examples, we illustrate the method and criteria which are used to analyze and classify these events considered to be emerging. The examples highlight the importance of host characteristics and exposure in groups at particular risk, such as professionals in veterinarian services, health care workers, travelers, immunodepressed patients, etc. The described method should allow us to identify future needs in terms of surveillance and to improve timeliness, quality of expertise, and feedback information regarding the public health risk posed by events which are insufficiently documented.