Heart failure--concepts and significance. Birth of a prognostic model

Heart failure (HF) is a syndrome characterized by high prevalence in society, frequent hospitalization, reduced quality of life and high mortality (overall, 50% of patients are dead at an interval of 4 years, annual mortality varying from 5% to 75%). Outcomes in heart failure are highly variable, prognosis of individual patients differs considerably and trial data, though valuable, does not often give an adequate direction. Taking into account the high prevalence of heart failure in society and its complexity physicians need a model to predict the risk of death, to estimate the survival of heart failure patients. A key element of interest in this area is the survival function, usually noted by S and defined as S(t) = exp(-H0(t)e(a)Tx) = e(-H)0(t)e(a)Tx.