Sticky Dollars: Inertia in the Evolution of Federal Allocations for HIV Care through the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program

While substantial research examines the dynamics prompting policy adoption, few studies have assessed whether enacted policies are modified to meet distributional equity concerns. Past research suggests that important forces limit such adaptation, termed here "policy inertia." We examine whether block grant allocations to states from the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program have evolved in response to major technological and political changes. We assess the impact of initial allocations on later funding patterns, compared to five counterfactual distributional equity standards. Initial allocations strongly predict future allocations; in comparison, the standards are weak predictors, suggesting the importance of policy inertia. Our methodology of employing multiple measures of equity as a counterfactual to policy inertia can be used to evaluate the adaptability of federalist programs in other domains.