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Fertility and development in Brazil.

¹Georgetown University, Georgetown, USA.

|February 1, 2011

Summary

Despite significant development and existing fertility differentials, Brazil experienced no fertility decline between 1940-1960. This challenges established demographic theories on development and fertility, raising concerns for future population growth.

Area of Science:

Demography
Sociology
Economics

Background:

Historically, socioeconomic development correlates with reduced fertility rates.
Demographic transition theory predicts fertility decline with urbanization and education.
Brazil presents a unique case study challenging these established theories.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze fertility trends in Brazil amidst significant socioeconomic development.
To investigate the relationship between development indicators and fertility changes in Brazil.
To reassess existing demographic theories based on Brazilian data.

Main Methods:

Analysis of Brazilian demographic and socioeconomic data from 1920-1960.
Examination of changes in industrial structure, per capita income, urbanization, and education.

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Comparison of observed fertility rates with theoretical expectations.

Main Results:

Substantial social and economic development occurred in Brazil between 1920-1960.
Fertility rates showed little to no decline, remaining constant around 43 births per 1000 population from 1940-1960.
Falling death rates and constant fertility led to accelerating population growth.

Conclusions:

Prevailing theories on development and fertility require modification for greater specificity.
Brazil's high population growth rate poses challenges to sustained economic development.
Further research is needed to understand fertility dynamics in developing nations.