Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak

G N Mercer1, K Glass, N G Becker

  • 1National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Geoff.Mercer@anu.edu.au

Statistics in Medicine
|February 2, 2011
PubMed

Related Concept Videos

Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
Infectious Diseases and Their Occurrence01:28

Infectious Diseases and Their Occurrence

Infectious diseases appear in populations through various transmission patterns, influenced by pathogen characteristics, population immunity, environmental conditions, and social behavior. Understanding these patterns is essential for effective public health surveillance and intervention. These categories—sporadic, outbreak, epidemic, pandemic, and endemic—help frame the nature and scope of disease events.Sporadic diseases occur irregularly and infrequently, without a predictable temporal or...
Population Growth00:57

Population Growth

Population size is dynamic, increasing with birth rates and immigration, and decreasing with death rates and emigration. In ideal conditions with unlimited resources, populations can increase exponentially, which plots as a J-shaped growth rate curve of population size against time. This type of curve is characteristic of newly-introduced invasive species, or populations that have suffered catastrophic declines and are rebounding.However, realistic environmental conditions limit the number of...
Exponential Growth01:29

Exponential Growth

Bacterial populations exhibit exponential growth when conditions such as nutrient availability and temperature are favorable. In this phase, cells reproduce through binary fission, where each cell divides into two identical daughter cells. This process causes the population to double at regular intervals, resulting in a growth rate that is directly proportional to the current number of cells. As the population increases, the number of new cells formed during each generation also grows, creating...
Dosage Regimens: Partial Pharmacokinetic Parameters01:01

Dosage Regimens: Partial Pharmacokinetic Parameters

It is not uncommon for complete drug pharmacokinetic profiles to remain elusive in pharmacokinetics. This necessitates certain educated assumptions by pharmacokineticists to determine appropriate dosage regimens without comprehensive pharmacokinetic data from animal or human studies. One prevalent assumption is setting the bioavailability factor, denoted as F, to 1 or 100%. This assumption caters to the scenario where a drug doesn't achieve full systemic absorption, resulting in the patient...
Investigation of Disease Outbreaks01:23

Investigation of Disease Outbreaks

Multistate foodborne outbreaks pose significant public health risks and require meticulous investigation to identify sources and implement control measures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) utilizes a dynamic seven-step process for these investigations, integrating data from laboratories, interviews, and environmental assessments to protect public health.Outbreak Detection: The detection of multistate outbreaks typically begins with PulseNet, the CDC's national laboratory...