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Population viability analysis with species occurrence data from museum collections.

Olav Skarpaas1, Odd E Stabbetorp

  • 1Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Oslo, Norway. olav.skarpaas@nina.no

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Summary

This study introduces a new population viability analysis (PVA) method using scientific collection data. It accurately estimates population parameters and extinction risk by accounting for observation errors, unlike standard methods.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Scientific collections provide extensive species occurrence data.
  • Traditional population viability analysis (PVA) methods often do not account for observation errors inherent in occurrence data.
  • This limitation can lead to inaccurate viability assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a novel PVA method that incorporates observation error from species occurrence data.
  • To enable more reliable population viability assessments for species with limited demographic data.
  • To compare the performance of the new method against standard PVA techniques.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a PVA method integrating species occurrence data with a model for observation error.
  • Utilized simulated data to test sensitivity to spatial resolution, time series length, sampling effort, and detection probability.
  • Performed PVAs on simulated data and real-world examples of common, rare, and threatened species.

Main Results:

  • The new PVA method provided realistic estimates of population growth and quasi-extinction risk, outperforming standard methods when observation error was present.
  • Method performance decreased in precision and could yield biased estimates under low sampling effort or detection probability.
  • Results for example species aligned with existing literature, validating the approach.

Conclusions:

  • The developed PVA method effectively utilizes scientific collection data by accounting for observation error.
  • This approach enhances the feasibility of conservation planning for numerous species lacking detailed demographic information.
  • Accurate PVA is crucial for effective conservation strategies, especially for data-deficient species.