Erratic flu vaccination emerges from short-sighted behavior in contact networks

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Network Science

Background:

• Vaccination program success hinges on individual compliance.
• Perceptions of infection and vaccination risks influence decisions and epidemic trajectories.
• Understanding human behavior's role in disease dynamics is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the interplay between contact patterns, influenza-related behavior, and disease dynamics.
• To incorporate game theory into network models to simulate vaccination decisions.
• To analyze how network structure and memory affect disease prevalence.

Main Methods:

• Developed network models incorporating game theory to simulate individual vaccination decisions.
• Analyzed the impact of contact patterns and past epidemic experiences on behavior.
• Examined how network structure and recall of prior seasons influence disease dynamics.

Main Results:

• Individuals with more contacts tend to vaccinate, but this threshold depends on network structure.
• Increased recall of past seasons reduces behavioral and disease variability.
• Higher flu transmission rates can paradoxically lead to lower vaccine-mediated prevalence in some networks.

Conclusions:

• Complex disease dynamics emerge from interactions between infectious diseases, human behavior, and contact networks.
• Network structure and individual decision-making significantly modulate epidemic outcomes.
• Behavioral factors, like memory of past epidemics, can stabilize disease dynamics.