Changing the referral criteria for bone scan in newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients

The aim of this study was to correlate the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and Gleason score with staging bone scan result in patients with a new diagnosis of prostate cancer in order to establish the feasibility of implementing the European Association Urology guidelines, which state that a bone scan may not be indicated when PSA <20 in well-moderately differentiated tumours.

We identified 633 patients retrospectively and 186 patients prospectively with a new diagnosis of prostate cancer undergoing a staging bone scan between March 2005 and January 2010. Patients were excluded if there was no Gleason score available or if the PSA level was checked over 3 months prior to bone scan. Bone scan results were analysed with respect to age, PSA level and Gleason score. In the case of an equivocal result, subsequent imaging was taken into consideration or the initial bone scan was re-reviewed. In persistently equivocal cases, all relevant imaging was assessed by a blinded panel of radiologists to allow a final decision to be made.

Of 672 patients aged 39-93 years (median 71 years), who fulfilled the inclusion criteria, 54 (8%) had evidence of bony metastases. PSA level and Gleason score were both independent predictors of bone scan positivity and their predictive value was additive p<0.01. None of the 357 patients with a PSA level of <20 and a Gleason score of <8 had a positive bone scan.

Staging bone scans in newly diagnosed prostate cancer patients with a PSA level of <20 and a Gleason score of <8 can be safely omitted, with these criteria having a negative predictive value of 100% in our series.