Age at marriage as a factor in state divorce rate differentials

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Demography
• Criminology

Background:

• A notable East-to-West gradient in state divorce rates has been observed.
• This gradient has been partially attributed to the "frontier atmosphere" concept, emphasizing mobility's role in social integration.

Purpose of the Study:

• To statistically analyze the predictors of state divorce rates in 1960 and 1970.
• To re-evaluate the influence of "frontierness" (population mobility) versus demographic factors on divorce rate differentials.

Main Methods:

• Employed linear statistical procedures to analyze state divorce rates.
• Adjusted divorce rates for age distribution and controlled for legal and nonlegal factors.
• Assessed the predictive power of "percent ever married among teenage females" and "frontierness" (population mobility).

Main Results:

• The percent ever married among teenage females emerged as the strongest statistical predictor of 1960 and 1970 divorce rates, after adjusting for age distribution.
• "Frontierness," measured by population mobility, demonstrated a negligible effect on divorce rates when controlling for other factors.
• Demographic variables, specifically age distribution and age at marriage, were found to be more significant than mobility.

Conclusions:

• Previous ecological studies may have overemphasized the impact of mobility and social stability on geographic divorce rate variations.
• The findings highlight the critical role of demographic factors, particularly age at marriage and age distribution, in explaining divorce rate differentials.
• This research suggests a need to reconsider the "frontier atmosphere" hypothesis in light of stronger demographic predictors.