Can de novo stress incontinence after anterior wall repair be predicted?

To locate preoperatively continent women with pelvic organ prolapse at risk of developing incontinence after surgery by means of reducing the prolapse preoperatively with a speculum and a pessary.

Prospective observational cohort study.

Departments of Obstetrics and Gynecology at Northern Alvborgs County Hospital, Varbergs Hospital, and Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Sweden, between 2000 and 2004.

Patients scheduled for anterior wall repair with no history of incontinence.

Data were collected using a questionnaire, a voiding diary, a gynecological examination including staging of prolapse with the Pelvic Organ Quantification System and clinical testing preoperatively and one year after vaginal repair. The first test included a cough test while the prolapse was reduced with a speculum. The second test was performed with the patient undergoing a standardized quantification test and a 48-hour pad test after reducing the prolapse with a pessary. Postoperatively, clinical testing was repeated one year after surgery without any device in place.

Reported symptoms of leakage during movement or coughing.

Seventy-four patients were included. Before surgery, six (8.1%) women tested positive during the speculum test and seven (9.5%) during the pessary test. Eight women (10.8%) were found to have subjective urinary stress incontinence after 1 year. This was only confirmed in four women during stress testing. The positive predictive values for subjective stress incontinence of the speculum and the pessary tests were 42.9% (95%CI 12.0-76.9) and 33.3% (95%CI -4.4 to +71.5), respectively. The negative predictive values of the tests were 92.5% (95%CI 90.3-1.00) and 91.1% (95%CI 88.5-99.7).

The tested preoperative methods predicting de novo subjective stress incontinence after anterior wall repair did not show sufficient positive predictive values to be clinically useful.