A reconsideration of negro-white mortality differentials in the united states

This paper summarizes the results of an investigation of the validity of Negro-white mortality differentials as reflected in the series of official United States life tables since the turn of the century. Pertinent excerpts from these often-quoted tables are reproduced in Appendix Table A-1 for convenient reference. The paper divides into two main parts.First, mortality levels and differentials beyond early childhood are derived, without use of the existing vital records, by interpreting the series of ten-year cumulative survival rates implicit in the census records for native whites and for Negroes. The results are in general agreement with the official figures, particularly for males.Second, mortality levels and differentials in early childhood are estimated by extrapolating the official 1)5 values via model life tables; that is, by the analytical procedure that would be followed in the absence of direct information on early childhood mortality. Unless it is assumed that age patterns of death for United States Negroes were extremely deviant from those found in populations with reliable census and vital statistics, one must conclude that the official figures grossly underestimate early childhood mortality for Negroes, at least for the period, 1910-40. It follows that, during those decades, Negro-white mortality differentials in terms of expectation of life at birth were also substantially higher than is suggested by the official estimates.