Contributions of natality models to program planning and evaluation

This paper is an attempt to describe and assess the contributions made by the newer quantitative models of natality to program planning and development. Considerable interest in models of natality is being reflected in reports of a large variety of ideas, suggestions, and proposed models. In view of this current activity, any assessment made now of the contributions of these models can be only tentative and should consider also prospects for the future.The present approach to assessment will be made in three parts: a description of recent developments in natality models, a discussion of the contributions of newer models, and a consideration of prospects for the future. The discussion applies not only to models whose primary focus is on natality but also to more general models that investigate natality among other processes.