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A computer model of family building based on expected values
1Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Brown University, USA.
Demography
|February 15, 2011
Summary
This study introduces FERMOD, a computerized probability model for family building. It tracks changes in children ever born and birth intervals within a population throughout their reproductive years.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Reproductive Health
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Understanding family building dynamics is crucial for public health and policy.
- Existing models may not fully capture the complexities of fertility transitions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce FERMOD, a novel computerized probability model for simulating family building.
- To analyze the changing distribution of children ever born and birth intervals.
- To provide a tool for studying fertility patterns in homogeneous populations.
Main Methods:
- Development of a computerized probability model named FERMOD.
- Incorporation of assumptions regarding fetal wastage, pregnancy length, and postpartum amenorrhea.
- Inclusion of factors like fecundability, desired family size, birth spacing, and contraceptive effectiveness.
Main Results:
- FERMOD simulates the progression of a population through its reproductive period.
- The model tracks key demographic indicators like children ever born and birth intervals.
- A limited application to United States fertility data is presented.
Conclusions:
- FERMOD offers a robust framework for modeling family building processes.
- The model can be used to explore the impact of various demographic and behavioral factors on fertility.
- Further applications and comparisons with other models are warranted.
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