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Evolution of virulence driven by predator-prey interaction: Possible consequences for population dynamics.

A Yu Morozov¹, M W Adamson

¹Department of Mathematics, University of Leicester, LE1 7RH, UK. am379@le.ac.uk

Journal of Theoretical Biology

|February 16, 2011

Summary

Predation intensifies pathogen virulence evolution, potentially leading to predator extinction. Maintaining severe pathogen strains can paradoxically enhance host and predator survival.

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Evolutionary Biology
Epidemiology

Background:

Pathogen virulence evolution is typically studied in isolation from host community interactions.
Trophic interactions, like predation, can significantly influence host mortality and pathogen evolution.
The impact of predation on virulence evolution and vice-versa remains underexplored.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the influence of predation on the evolution of pathogen virulence within a host population.
To analyze how the evolution of virulence affects predator-prey population dynamics.
To determine the evolutionarily stable virulence under predation pressure.

Main Methods:

Utilized a Susceptible-Infected (S-I) eco-epidemiological model.
Incorporated a predator consuming the infected host.
Analyzed the model to identify evolutionarily stable virulence and its dependence on ecological parameters.

Main Results:

Predation can drive evolutionarily stable virulence towards more severe pathogen strains.
Virulence evolution can lead to complex dynamical regimes and predator extinction.
Predation indirectly influences prey evolution by making virulence dependent on prey growth rate.

Conclusions:

Predation significantly alters pathogen virulence evolution compared to predator-free systems.
The evolution of virulence can destabilize predator-prey dynamics, potentially causing extinction.
Managing pathogen virulence, by maintaining severe strains, may be crucial for species persistence in certain environments.