Child underreporting, fertility, and sex ratio imbalance in China

Daniel Goodkind1

  • 1U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, USA. daniel.m.goodkind@census.gov

Demography
|February 22, 2011
PubMed

Insights

Child underreporting in China significantly increased after 1991, impacting fertility and sex ratio estimates. New analysis reveals higher unreported children and lower fertility rates than previously assumed.

Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Child underreporting is a significant issue in Chinese demographic studies.
  • The birth planning system's stricter enforcement in 1991 likely influenced underreporting.
  • Existing fertility and sex ratio estimates may be inaccurate due to this underreporting.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify child underreporting in China using intercensal comparisons.
  • To reassess fertility estimates based on corrected underreporting data.
  • To analyze the impact of underreporting on sex ratio at birth calculations.

Main Methods:

  • Intercensal comparisons of census data to identify underreporting trends.
  • Triangulation of evidence to estimate the percentage of unreported children.
  • Analysis of sex ratios of births and children, accounting for underreporting.

Main Results:

  • An estimated 19% of children aged 0-4 were unreported in the 2000 Chinese census, a substantial increase from 1990.
  • China's fertility rate in the late 1990s was likely lower than officially reported.
  • Estimated sex ratios at birth are lower than reported ratios due to excess underreporting of daughters.

Conclusions:

  • Child underreporting, particularly of daughters, significantly distorts demographic measures in China.
  • Fertility estimates require revision due to increased underreporting post-1991.
  • Sex ratio imbalances are complex, influenced by underreporting and potentially by specific population policies.

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