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Child underreporting, fertility, and sex ratio imbalance in China
1U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC, USA. daniel.m.goodkind@census.gov
Insights
Child underreporting in China significantly increased after 1991, impacting fertility and sex ratio estimates. New analysis reveals higher unreported children and lower fertility rates than previously assumed.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Sociology
Background:
- Child underreporting is a significant issue in Chinese demographic studies.
- The birth planning system's stricter enforcement in 1991 likely influenced underreporting.
- Existing fertility and sex ratio estimates may be inaccurate due to this underreporting.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify child underreporting in China using intercensal comparisons.
- To reassess fertility estimates based on corrected underreporting data.
- To analyze the impact of underreporting on sex ratio at birth calculations.
Main Methods:
- Intercensal comparisons of census data to identify underreporting trends.
- Triangulation of evidence to estimate the percentage of unreported children.
- Analysis of sex ratios of births and children, accounting for underreporting.
Main Results:
- An estimated 19% of children aged 0-4 were unreported in the 2000 Chinese census, a substantial increase from 1990.
- China's fertility rate in the late 1990s was likely lower than officially reported.
- Estimated sex ratios at birth are lower than reported ratios due to excess underreporting of daughters.
Conclusions:
- Child underreporting, particularly of daughters, significantly distorts demographic measures in China.
- Fertility estimates require revision due to increased underreporting post-1991.
- Sex ratio imbalances are complex, influenced by underreporting and potentially by specific population policies.
Abstract:
Child underreporting is often neglected in studies of fertility and sex ratio imbalance in China. To improve estimates of these measures, I use intercensal comparisons to identify a rise in underreporting, which followed the increased enforcement and penalization under the birth planning system in 1991. A new triangulation of evidence indicates that about 19% of children at ages 0-4 were unreported in the 2000 census, more than double that of the 1990 census. This evidence contradicts assumptions underlying the fertility estimates of most recent studies. Yet, the analysis also suggests that China's fertility in the late 1990s (and perhaps beyond) was below officially adjusted levels. I then conduct a similar intercensal analysis of sex ratios of births and children, which are the world's highest primarily because of prenatal sex selection. However, given excess underreporting of young daughters, especially pronounced just after 1990, estimated ratios are lower than reported ratios. Sex ratios in areas with a "1.5-child" policy are especially distorted because of excess daughter underreporting, as well as sex-linked stopping rules and other factors, although it is unclear whether such policies increase use of prenatal sex selection. China's sex ratio at birth, once it is standardized by birth order, fell between 2000 and 2005 and showed a continuing excess in urban China, not rural China.
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