Prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma with time-dependent factors

Area of Science:

• Hepatology
• Oncology
• Medical Statistics

Background:

• Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognosis assessment traditionally relies on time-fixed models.
• Re-evaluating prognosis dynamically throughout the disease course is crucial for effective patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a time-dependent prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
• To enhance the precision of HCC prognosis prediction compared to existing staging systems.

Main Methods:

• Construction of time-fixed and time-dependent prognostic models using a training cohort (n=336).
• Comparison of prognostic abilities using the c-index in a testing cohort (n=227).
• Inclusion of variables such as tumor size, number, portal vein invasion, metastasis, AFP, DCP, bilirubin, and albumin.

Main Results:

• The time-dependent model achieved a higher c-index (0.870) compared to CLIP (0.741), JIS (0.727), and Okuda classification (0.609).
• The developed model demonstrated superior accuracy in predicting HCC prognosis.

Conclusions:

• The novel time-dependent prognostic model provides more precise HCC prognosis estimation than conventional time-fixed models.
• This model can be utilized for re-predicting HCC prognosis at any stage of the disease, aiding clinical decision-making.