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Modeling Addictive Consumption as an Infectious Disease.
Benjamin Alamar1, Stanton A Glantz
1University of California, San Francisco.
Contributions to Economic Analysis & Policy
|February 23, 2011
Summary
The rational addiction model assumes individuals consider future costs. An alternative infectious disease model suggests addiction spreads socially, explaining initial consumption patterns effectively.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Economics
- Epidemiology
- Addiction Studies
Background:
- The dominant economic model of addictive consumption is rational addiction theory.
- This theory posits addicts make consumption choices based on past behavior, current benefits, and future costs.
- Empirical studies on cigarette sales have been interpreted as supporting rational addiction by showing correlations between future prices and current consumption.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present an alternative model of addiction based on infectious disease principles.
- To compare the explanatory power of the infectious disease model with the rational addiction model.
- To investigate how social factors influence addictive behaviors.
Main Methods:
- A simulation of the infectious disease model of addiction was developed.
- Price and consumption data were used to test the simulation's output.
- The simulation's results were qualitatively compared to findings from the rational addiction model.
Main Results:
- The infectious disease model demonstrated a qualitative match with the results derived from the rational addiction model.
- The infectious disease model successfully explains initial consumption patterns of addictive goods.
- This model links an individual's addiction probability to the behavior of their social network (parents, friends, society).
Conclusions:
- The infectious disease model offers a viable alternative to rational addiction theory.
- Social contagion is a significant factor in understanding addictive consumption.
- The infectious disease model can account for all theoretical outcomes of the rational addiction model, plus initial consumption behavior.
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