Sea water intrusion by sea-level rise: scenarios for the 21st century

This study presents a method to assess the contributions of 21st-century sea-level rise and groundwater extraction to sea water intrusion in coastal aquifers. Sea water intrusion is represented by the landward advance of the 10,000 mg/L iso-salinity line, a concentration of dissolved salts that renders groundwater unsuitable for human use. A mathematical formulation of the resolution of sea water intrusion among its causes was quantified via numerical simulation under scenarios of change in groundwater extraction and sea-level rise in the 21st century. The developed method is illustrated with simulations of sea water intrusion in the Seaside Area sub-basin near the City of Monterey, California (USA), where predictions of mean sea-level rise through the early 21st century range from 0.10 to 0.90 m due to increasing global mean surface temperature. The modeling simulation was carried out with a state-of-the-art numerical model that accounts for the effects of salinity on groundwater density and can approximate hydrostratigraphic geometry closely. Simulations of sea water intrusion corresponding to various combinations of groundwater extraction and sea-level rise established that groundwater extraction is the predominant driver of sea water intrusion in the study aquifer. The method presented in this work is applicable to coastal aquifers under a variety of other scenarios of change not considered in this work. For example, one could resolve what changes in groundwater extraction and/or sea level would cause specified levels of groundwater salinization at strategic locations and times.