Simian-human immunodeficiency infection--is the course set in the acute phase?

Identifying early predictors of infection outcome is important for the clinical management of HIV infection, and both viral load and CD4+ T cell level have been found to be useful predictors of subsequent disease progression. Very high viral load or extensively depleted CD4+ T cells in the acute phase often result in failure of immune control, and a fast progression to AIDS. It is usually assumed that extensive loss of CD4+ T cells in the acute phase of HIV infection prevents the establishment of robust T cell help required for virus control in the chronic phase. We tested this hypothesis using viral load and CD4+ T cell number of SHIV-infected rhesus macaques. In acute infection, the lowest level of CD4+ T cells was a good predictor of later survival; animals having less than 3.3% of baseline CD4+ T cells progressed to severe disease, while animals with more than 3.3% of baseline CD4+ T cells experienced CD4+ T cell recovery. However, it is unclear if the disease progression was caused by early depletion, or was simply a result of a higher susceptibility of an animal to infection. We derived a simple relationship between the expected number of CD4+ T cells in the acute and chronic phases for a constant level of host susceptibility or resistance. We found that in most cases, the depletion of CD4+ T cells in chronic infection was consistent with the prediction from the acute CD4+ T cell loss. However, the animals with less than 3.3% of baseline CD4 T cells in the acute phase were approximately 20% more depleted late in the infection than expected based on constant level of virus control. This suggests that severe acute CD4 depletion indeed impairs the immune response.