Overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes involving bicycles: an empirical investigation

Recent emphasis on bicycling as an alternative to automobile transportation has underscored the need for research efforts directed at bicycle safety when sharing roadways with motorised vehicles. Much of the research attention is focused on junction accidents where motorists tend to infringe upon bicycles' right of way. Non-junction accidents where a motorist strikes a bicycle while overtaking it, or crashes into the rear of the bicycle, have been less frequently researched. Another common crash type is a door crash that involves a bicycle striking an open door of an automobile. Using British Stats19 accident data, the present study estimates a mixed multinomial model to predict the likelihood of a non-junction crash being of a certain crash type (out of three possible types). The methodological approach adopted allows for the individuals within the observations to have different parameter estimates (as opposed to a single parameter representing all observations). Main findings include that buses/coaches as collision partners were associated with overtaking crashes; and bicycles' traversing manoeuvres were associated with overtaking and rear-end collisions. Given a crash where a bicycle collides with a motorcycle/taxi, it is more likely a rear-end crash and a door crash, respectively. Implications of the research findings, the concluding remarks, and recommendations for future research are finally provided.