[Estimation of the number of kidney recipients with a functional graft in France, from 1975 to 1994]

The evolution observed in the number of kidney grafts performed in France and the number of recipients living with a functional graft is described. Using the data collected between 1975 and 1988 and the graft survival rates, the size of this population for the 5 forthcoming years can be predicted. The annual number of kidney grafts will stabilize at 2,750 in 1993, if we assume a limit of 50 grafts per million inhabitants, which is the maximum rate currently observed in several regions of France. At this level, the organs used for kidney retransplantations would begin to reduce the availability of kidney first grafts. These predictions are based on the assumption that no major adverse change will occur in the current organ procurement policy. The total number of kidney recipients would then reach about 17,700 in 1994. This population has increased fivefold since 1980 and will double in the forthcoming years. Henceforth, plans for financial and human resources to ensure the follow-up of this population should be implemented.