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Related Concept Videos

The Phosphorus Cycle01:21

The Phosphorus Cycle

Unlike carbon, water, and nitrogen, phosphorus is not present in the atmosphere as a gas. Instead, most phosphorus in the ecosystem exists as compounds, such as phosphate ions (PO43-), found in soil, water, sediment and rocks. Phosphorus is often a limiting nutrient (i.e., in short supply). Consequently, phosphorus is added to most agricultural fertilizers, which can cause environmental problems related to runoff in aquatic ecosystems.

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Extrapolating phosphorus production to estimate resource reserves.

David A Vaccari1, Nikolay Strigul

  • 1Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ 07030, USA. dvaccari@stevens.edu

Chemosphere
|March 29, 2011
PubMed
Summary

Phosphate resource scarcity is increasing, but Hubbert curve extrapolations are unreliable for forecasting peak production. Future forecasts should incorporate population growth and economic factors alongside historical data.

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Area of Science:

  • Earth and Environmental Sciences
  • Resource Management
  • Geological Resource Assessment

Background:

  • Global phosphorus (phosphate rock) is a critical, non-renewable resource for agriculture and industry.
  • Several indicators suggest increasing scarcity of global phosphate resources.
  • Accurate forecasting of phosphate availability is essential for long-term resource planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine various indicators of resource scarcity for phosphorus.
  • To evaluate the uncertainty and robustness of Hubbert curve extrapolations for phosphate rock.
  • To suggest improved methods for forecasting phosphate resource availability.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of resource lifetime calculations and trends in price, ore grade, and discovery rates.
  • Application and confidence interval computation for Hubbert curves using historical production data.
  • Comparison of Hubbert curve applicability for resources with and without substitutes.

Main Results:

  • Multiple indicators point towards increasing scarcity of phosphate resources.
  • Hubbert curve extrapolations for phosphate rock are shown to be not robust for predicting ultimate reserves or peak production.
  • The limitations of Hubbert curves are highlighted, especially for resources lacking alternatives.

Conclusions:

  • Resource lifetime calculations provide only a rough index of potential scarcity.
  • Hubbert-type forecasting is unreliable for phosphate rock due to its unique resource characteristics.
  • Future phosphate resource forecasts should integrate diverse data, including population growth, identified resources, and economic factors.