CSF Bcl-2 and cytochrome C temporal profiles in outcome prediction for adults with severe TBI

The biochemical cascades associated with cell death after traumatic brain injury (TBI) involve both pro-survival and pro-apoptotic proteins. We hypothesized that elevated cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Bcl-2 and cytochrome C (CytoC) levels over time would reflect cellular injury response and predict long-term outcomes after TBI. Cerebrospinal fluid Bcl-2 and CytoC levels were measured for 6 days after injury for adults with severe TBI (N=76 subjects; N=277 samples). Group-based trajectory analysis was used to generate distinct temporal biomarker profiles that were compared with Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) and Disability Rating Scale (DRS) scores at 6 and 12 months after TBI. Subjects with persistently elevated temporal Bcl-2 and CytoC profiles compared with healthy controls had the worst outcomes at 6 and 12 months (P≤0.027). Those with CytoC profiles near controls had better long-term outcomes, and those with declining CytoC levels over time had intermediate outcomes. Subjects with Bcl-2 profiles that remained near controls had better outcomes than those with consistently elevated Bcl-2 profiles. However, subjects with Bcl-2 values that started near controls and steadily rose over time had 100% good outcomes by 12 months after TBI. These results show the prognostic value of Bcl-2 and CytoC profiles and suggest a dynamic apoptotic and pro-survival response to TBI.