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Published on: July 24, 2016
Modelling catchment areas for secondary care providers: a case study.
Simon Jones1, Jessica Wardlaw, Susan Crouch
1Centre for Workforce Intelligence, London, UK. simon.jones@cfwi.org.uk
Understanding patient flow is crucial for hospitals. This study compares three methods for defining hospital catchment areas, finding the Proportional Flow method optimal for most applications due to its accuracy and accessibility.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Geographic Information Systems in Healthcare
- Health Economics
Background:
- Hospitals require accurate patient flow data for strategic planning in a competitive healthcare market.
- Existing methods for defining hospital catchment areas (administrative boundaries, drive times) are inadequate.
- New healthcare policies necessitate improved understanding of patient demographics and geographic access to services.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare three distinct methods for defining hospital catchment areas and populations.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of different modeling approaches for understanding patient flows.
- To identify the most suitable method for secondary care providers (SCPs) and primary care trusts (PCTs).
Main Methods:
- 'First Past the Post' method: Allocates each Census Output Area (OA) to the dominant secondary care provider (SCP) based on patient activity.
- 'Proportional Flow' method: Distributes patient activity from each OA proportionally among SCPs, capturing cross-boundary flows.
- Gravity model: Incorporates drive or travel time into the catchment area definition, offering greater detail.
Main Results:
- The gravity model provided necessary detail for planning a new hospital but is complex.
- The Proportional Flow method demonstrated the smallest Root Mean Square (RMS) error and effectively handled cross-boundary patient flows.
- Proportional Flow utilizes readily available data, is simpler to reproduce than the gravity model, and proved optimal for most Manchester case study applications.
Conclusions:
- The Proportional Flow method offers a practical and accurate approach for defining catchment populations for most healthcare applications.
- Further research is needed to refine the Proportional Flow method for service redesign and low-activity areas.
- Wider implementation of the Proportional Flow method across England, with further data granularity, is recommended.
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