A modelling framework for the analysis of artificial-selection time series

Artificial-selection experiments constitute an important source of empirical information for breeders, geneticists and evolutionary biologists. Selected characters can generally be shifted far from their initial state, sometimes beyond what is usually considered as typical inter-specific divergence. A careful analysis of the data collected during such experiments may thus reveal the dynamical properties of the genetic architecture that underlies the trait under selection. Here, we propose a statistical framework describing the dynamics of selection-response time series. We highlight how both phenomenological models (which do not make assumptions on the nature of genetic phenomena) and mechanistic models (explaining the temporal trends in terms of e.g. mutations, epistasis or canalization) can be used to understand and interpret artificial-selection data. The practical use of the models and their implementation in a software package are demonstrated through the analysis of a selection experiment on the shape of the wing in Drosophila melanogaster.