Temporal trends in diabetes prevalence and key diabetes risk factors in Scotland, 2003-2008

We assessed temporal trends in diabetes prevalence and key diabetes risk factors (obesity, physical activity, smoking) over 5 years in a nationally representative sample.

Participants were drawn from the Scottish Health Surveys, which recruited two separate, nationally representative samples in 2003 (n = 7229, aged 50.5 ± 17.2 years) and 2008 (n = 6313, aged 51.8 ± 17.6 years). Prevalent diabetes was assessed from a self-reported physician's diagnosis, and high diabetes risk or undiagnosed cases were defined from HbA(1c) ≥ 6.0% (≥ 42 mmol/mol) to < 6.5% (< 47.5 mmol/mol) and ≥ 6.5% (≥ 47.5 mmol/mol), respectively.

Over 5 years there was an increased prevalence of diabetes (5.2 vs. 9.4% in 2003 and 2008, respectively) and in the prevalence of high diabetes risk (2.9 vs. 12.4%). These differences were accentuated in participants aged 65 years and above; for diabetes, there was a prevalence of 12 and 17.3% in 2003 and 2008, respectively, and, for high risk, the prevalence was 7.8 and 24.7%, respectively. There was also an increase in diabetes risk factors, including obesity and lack of physical activity, although these factors did not explain the diabetes trend.

These results suggest nearly a doubling in the prevalence of diabetes over 5 years in Scotland.