[Relative validity of the 10-year cardiovascular risk estimate in a population cohort of the REGICOR study]

Cardiovascular risk screening requires accurate risk functions. The relative validity of the Framingham-based REGICOR adapted function is analyzed and the population distribution of cardiovascular 10-year cardiovascular events is described by risk group.

A population cohort of 3856 participants recruited between 1995 and 2000, aged 35 to 74 years from Girona without symptoms of cardiovascular diseases, was followed between 2006 and 2009. Standardized laboratory and blood pressure measurements, questionnaires, and case definitions were used. The follow-up combined cross-linkage of our databases with our regional mortality registry, reexamination, and telephone contact with participants. Coronary disease endpoints alone were considered.

A total of 27 487 person-years were obtained (mean follow-up 7.1 years), and the follow-up was achieved in 97% of participants (120 coronary disease events). Validity was good: the regression coefficients estimated with the cohort data did not differ from those obtained in the original Framingham function. Function calibration was good: the observed incidence of cardiovascular events in the decile groups of risk did not differ from the function prediction (P=.127 in women, and P=.054 in men). The C statistic (discrimination) was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.88) in women, and 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83) in men. More than 50% of cardiovascular events occurred in participants whose 10-year risk was 5% to 14.9%.

The studied function accurately predicts coronary disease events at 10 years. Risk stratification could be simplified in 4 groups: low (<5%), moderate (5%-9.9%), high (10%-14.9%) and very high (≥15%).