Seasonality patterns in croup presentations to emergency departments in Alberta, Canada: a time series analysis

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Emergency Medicine
• Epidemiology
• Time Series Analysis

Background:

• Croup is a frequent pediatric respiratory illness, particularly during fall and winter.
• Parainfluenza viruses are the primary cause of croup.
• This study investigates temporal patterns of croup-related emergency department (ED) visits in young children in Alberta, Canada.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the monthly and seasonal patterns of croup-related ED visits in children aged 2 years and younger.
• To identify any biennial trends in croup presentations.
• To develop predictive models for future croup ED visits.

Main Methods:

• Utilized provincial administrative databases to identify all ED encounters for croup in young children (≤2 years) over a 6-year period (1999-2005).
• Employed seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time series models to capture temporal and seasonal trends.
• Incorporated detected 12-month seasonal patterns into the modeling.

Main Results:

• A total of 27,355 croup-related ED visits were recorded during the study period.
• Males constituted 62% of visits, with 43% of patients being younger than 1 year.
• A distinct biennial pattern was observed, with peak visits in November for odd years and February for even years.

Conclusions:

• A clear biennial pattern in croup ED visits among young children was identified.
• SARIMA models provide valuable insights into croup epidemiology and can predict future trends.
• These findings can assist in planning research endeavors and allocating healthcare resources for pediatric respiratory illnesses.