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Does it make sense to modify tropical cyclones? A decision-analytic assessment
Kelly Klima1, M Granger Morgan, Iris Grossmann
1Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, USA. kklima@andrew.cmu.edu
Environmental Science & Technology
|April 22, 2011
Summary
Intentional hurricane modification using wind-wave pumps could reduce losses from intense tropical cyclones (TCs). However, structural hardening offers more reliable protection for average storms.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Meteorology
- Decision Analysis
Background:
- Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause increasing damages.
- Improved understanding of TC physics supports research into intentional hurricane modification.
Purpose of the Study:
- Assess the cost-effectiveness of reducing TC wind speeds via sea surface temperature reduction.
- Compare hurricane modification with structural hardening strategies for South Florida.
Main Methods:
- Decision analytic assessment using historical TC data.
- Modern TC model to estimate modification effects.
- FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 and census data for economic loss estimation.
Main Results:
- Hurricane modification could reduce net losses for intense storms more than hardening.
- Structural hardening provides fail-safe protection for average storms.
- Natural variability significantly impacts storm damage outcomes.
Conclusions:
- Intentional hurricane modification shows potential cost-effectiveness for intense storms.
- A combination of strategies may be optimal, considering storm variability.
- Modification may also mitigate storm surge damage.
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