Short communication: Quantifying bias in a single-trait international model ignoring covariances from multiple-trait...

The current method in use for international genetic evaluations, called single-trait multiple across-country evaluation (ST-MACE), does not consider residual covariances among traits, making possible only the inclusion of one trait per country in an analysis. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of bias resulting from treating traits from the same country as nationally independent in an international genetic evaluation. Data from the September 2007 Interbull test evaluation for Holstein female fertility traits were used. Data included were 1 trait from Belgium, Switzerland, Spain, and the United States of America, and 2 traits from Canada, Germany-Austria, and Denmark-Finland-Sweden. The biased results were obtained from a 10-variate ST-MACE analysis including all country traits. The unbiased results were obtained from 8 different 7-variate ST-MACE analyses, each including only 1 trait per country. Average absolute bias in the genetic correlations among 2-trait countries (0.11) was higher than for between 1-trait countries and 2-trait countries (0.07) and for among 1-trait countries (0.03). The results of the biased and the unbiased analyses were different, not only due to bias, but also because of different number of traits involved in the analyses. Differences were considerable (on average, 0.08 to 6.91) for reliabilities, which were higher for traits with lower heritability. Average differences were minor (-0.04 to 0.03 standard deviations) for predicted genetic merits. However, for the top 100 bulls in each country trait, these differences were important (on average, -0.26 to 0.11 standard deviation of predicted genetic merit), which caused considerable changes in bull rankings. The results of this study showed that the effect of bias, caused by ignoring covariances from multiple-trait national models in an ST-MACE analysis, is of such a magnitude that necessitates the use of another method such as multiple-trait multiple across-country evaluation.