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A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
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Published on: December 9, 2015

Beyond the ubiquitous relapse curve: a data-informed approach.

William H Zywiak1, George A Kenna, Verner S Westerberg

  • 1Decision Sciences Institute, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation Pawtucket, RI, USA.

Frontiers in Psychiatry
|May 11, 2011
PubMed
Summary

Relapse curves often overlook patient transitions between drinking states. This study reveals stable abstinence and very heavy drinking, while moderate drinking is unstable, influenced by family history and power functions.

Keywords:
drinking statesnon-linear processespower functionrelapsetreatment outcome

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Area of Science:

  • Addiction research
  • Behavioral science
  • Substance use disorder treatment

Background:

  • Traditional relapse models focus on time to first use, neglecting dynamic patient transitions.
  • Understanding the complexities of post-treatment functioning requires analyzing movement into and out of substance use states.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze monthly transitions between drinking states over one year.
  • To identify factors influencing state stability and transitions in individuals post-treatment for substance use.

Main Methods:

  • Classified 550 clients into drinking states (abstinent, light, moderate, heavy, very heavy).
  • Tracked monthly state changes over a one-year period.
  • Utilized power function analysis to model state switching frequency.

Main Results:

  • Abstinence and very heavy drinking states were stable; light, moderate, and heavy drinking states were unstable.
  • Clients with a family history of alcoholism were less likely to experience unstable drinking states.
  • A power function explained 83% of the relationship between cases and the number of state switches.

Conclusions:

  • Relapse is a dynamic process with varying state stabilities, not just a single event.
  • Family history of alcoholism may confer resilience against unstable drinking patterns.
  • Stable states like abstinence and very heavy drinking act as attractors in the transition dynamics.