Shape of the BMI-mortality association by cause of death, using generalized additive models: NHIS 1986-2006

Numerous studies have examined the association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality. The precise shape of their association, however, has not been established. We use nonparametric methods to determine the relationship between BMI and mortality.

Data from the National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files 1986-2006 for adults aged 50 to 80 are analyzed using a Poisson approach to survival modeling within the generalized additive model (GAM) framework.

The BMI-mortality association is more V shaped than U shaped, with the odds of dying rising steeply from the lowest risk point at BMIs of 23 to 26. The association varies considerably by time since interview and cause of death. For instance, the association has an inverted J shape for respiratory causes but is monotonically increasing for diabetes deaths.

Our findings have implications for interpreting results from BMI-mortality studies and suggest caution in translating the findings into public health messages.