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Updated: Jun 2, 2026

Lumped-Parameter and Finite Element Modeling of Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction
Published on: February 13, 2021
Do heart failure disease management programs make financial sense under a bundled payment system?
Zubin J Eapen1, Shelby D Reed, Lesley H Curtis
1Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, USA.
Bundled payments for heart failure (HF) care may incentivize hospitals to adopt disease management (DM) programs. These programs can reduce costly HF readmissions, making them financially viable for providers.
Area of Science:
- Health economics
- Healthcare policy
- Cardiology
Background:
- Policymakers propose bundled payments for heart failure (HF) care to reduce costs.
- Disease management (DM) programs reduce HF readmissions but are not cost-effective under current payment models.
- The financial impact of DM programs under bundled payment is unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- Determine the cost-neutral point for typical DM programs.
- Assess if published HF DM programs are cost-saving under bundled payments.
- Evaluate the financial viability of DM programs for HF care.
Main Methods:
- Decision analytic model using retrospective data, meta-analyses, and randomized trials.
- Analysis of Medicare claims for HF discharges (2001-2004).
- Calculation of DM program and inpatient care costs over 30 and 180 days.
Main Results:
- Baseline HF readmission rate was 22.9% ($2,272 cost per patient).
- A DM program reducing readmissions by 21% needs to cost $477/patient to be cost-neutral.
- Three of five evaluated DM programs were cost-saving (-$241 to $347/patient).
- Extending bundled payments to 180 days increased savings ($419 to $1,706/patient).
Conclusions:
- Bundled payments for HF admissions can financially incentivize hospitals.
- Implementation of DM programs that reduce readmissions becomes attractive.
- This model supports cost-effective HF care management.
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