Geographic profiling as a novel spatial tool for targeting infectious disease control

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Spatial Analysis
• Criminology

Background:

• Geographic profiling is a statistical technique initially developed for criminal investigations.
• This study explores its application in identifying sources of infectious disease outbreaks.
• Two datasets, historical and modern, are utilized to validate the method.

Purpose of the Study:

• To demonstrate the utility of geographic profiling in locating infectious disease origins.
• To evaluate the method's effectiveness compared to traditional spatial central tendency measures.

Main Methods:

• Re-analysis of the 1854 London cholera outbreak data, using 321 disease sites to evaluate 13 water pump locations.
• Analysis of malaria case data from Cairo, Egypt (139 cases) to rank 59 potential water source locations.
• Application of geographic profiling to prioritize suspect locations based on disease distribution.

Main Results:

• The Broad Street pump, the source of the 1854 cholera outbreak, was ranked first (top 0.2%) using geographic profiling.
• In the Cairo malaria study, six of the seven identified Anopheles sergentii breeding sites were ranked within the top 2% of the geoprofile.
• Geographic profiling demonstrated superior performance over other spatial central tendency measures in both case studies.

Conclusions:

• Geographic profiling can be a valuable tool for integrated infectious disease control strategies.
• Evidence-based targeting of interventions, facilitated by this method, enhances efficiency.
• The approach offers environmental and cost-effective benefits compared to untargeted interventions.