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Age-specific differences in influenza A epidemic curves: do children drive the spread of influenza epidemics?

Dena Schanzer1, Julie Vachon, Louise Pelletier

  • 1Modeling and Projection Section, Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 100 Eglantine Driveway, Tunney’s Pasture, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0K9, Canada. dena.schanzer@phac-aspc.gc.ca

American Journal of Epidemiology
|May 24, 2011
PubMed

Insights

Children

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Growing evidence suggests children significantly influence influenza epidemic spread.
  • Understanding age-specific transmission dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify age-specific lead times in influenza A virus (IAV) transmission.
  • To evaluate the role of different age groups in initiating epidemic waves.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of laboratory-confirmed influenza A cases (1995/1996-2005/2006) and H1N1/2009 pandemic admissions in Canadian communities.
  • Alignment of local epidemic curves by age group prior to aggregation to identify temporal differences in infection peaks.

Main Results:

  • During seasonal influenza, the 10-19 and 20-29 year age groups peaked one week earlier than other groups.
  • In the 2009 pandemic's fall wave, only the 10-19 year group showed an earlier peak.
  • The 20-29 year group showed a 3.9-day lead over the 10-19 year group in H3N2 seasons; the 10-19 year group led by 3 days over younger children and adults in the 2009 pandemic fall wave.

Conclusions:

  • The hypothesis that younger school-aged children initiate influenza epidemics is questionable.
  • Older children and young adults (10-29 years) may play a more significant role in leading influenza transmission waves.
  • Age-specific analysis reveals nuanced patterns in influenza spread, impacting public health strategies.

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