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Predicting melanoma risk for the Australian population
Victoria Mar1, Rory Wolfe, John W Kelly
1Victorian Melanoma Service, The Alfred Hospital, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. torimar@ymail.com
The Australasian Journal of Dermatology
|May 25, 2011
Summary
A new melanoma risk assessment tool aids early detection in Australia by identifying key risk factors like naevi and family history. This calculator helps stratify individuals for targeted surveillance strategies, improving patient communication.
Area of Science:
- Dermatology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Melanoma incidence is increasing in Australia, necessitating improved early detection strategies.
- Targeting high-risk individuals is crucial for effective melanoma surveillance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a population-specific risk assessment tool for melanoma.
- To enhance the assignment of surveillance strategies beyond clinical intuition.
- To improve accurate and effective risk communication for patients.
Main Methods:
- Adapted methods from breast cancer risk model development.
- Utilized meta-analysis data for risk estimation.
- Calculated attributable risk using data from the Victorian Melanoma Service.
- Incorporated local cancer registry data to estimate 5-year melanoma risk.
Main Results:
- Identified independent risk factors: common/atypical naevi, hair color, freckles, family/personal history of melanoma, and personal history of non-melanoma skin cancer.
- Personal history of melanoma is the strongest predictor (RR 7.28).
- Absolute risk is highly variable based on age, risk factors, and geographic location.
Conclusions:
- A validated melanoma risk assessment tool is now available.
- The tool is based on current best evidence and accessible online.
- The tool is designed for easy updates as new data emerges.
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