Genetic variation in flowering time induces phenological assortative mating: quantitative genetic methods applied to...

It has been argued from first principles that plants mate assortatively by flowering time. However, there have been very few studies of phenological assortative mating, perhaps because current methods to infer paternal phenotype are difficult to apply to natural populations. Two methods are presented to estimate the phenotypic correlation between mates-the quantitative genetic metric for assortative mating-for phenological traits. The first method uses individual flowering schedules to estimate mating probabilities for every potential pairing in a sample. These probabilities are then incorporated into a weighted phenotypic correlation between all potential mates and thus yield a prospective estimate based on mating opportunities. The correlation between mates can also be estimated retrospectively by comparing the regression of offspring phenotype over one parent, which is inflated by assortative mating, to the regression over mid-parent, which is not. In a demonstration experiment with Brassica rapa, the prospective correlation between flowering times (days from germination to anthesis) of pollen recipients and their potential donors was 0.58. The retrospective estimate of this correlation strongly agreed with the prospective estimate. The prospective method is easily employed in field studies that explore the effect of phenological assortative mating on selection response and population differentiation.