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Microcredit in theory and practice: using randomized credit scoring for impact evaluation.

Dean Karlan¹, Jonathan Zinman

¹Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA. dean.karlan@yale.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|June 11, 2011

Summary

Microcredit loans in the Philippines increased borrowing but reduced business activity and well-being. While not boosting female entrepreneurship as expected, microloans improved risk management and community ties.

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Area of Science:

Development Economics
Behavioral Economics
Poverty Alleviation

Background:

Microcredit is a significant global tool for poverty reduction, primarily targeting female entrepreneurs.
Proponents claim microcredit stimulates enterprise growth and enhances borrower well-being by addressing market failures.

Purpose of the Study:

To empirically test the hypothesized impacts of microcredit on enterprise growth, well-being, and poverty.
To investigate the specific channels through which microcredit affects borrowers in the Philippines.

Main Methods:

A randomized controlled trial (RCT) involving 1601 individuals in the Philippines.
Individual liability microloans (average $225) were assigned via credit scoring, with outcomes assessed over 11-22 months.

Main Results:

Net borrowing increased significantly in the treatment group, indicating unmet demand at a ~60% annualized interest rate.
Business activities and employment levels decreased, and subjective well-being slightly declined among borrowers.
Treatment effects were not more pronounced for women; however, microloans enhanced risk coping, community ties, and informal credit access.

Conclusions:

Microcredit in this context did not spur enterprise growth or well-being as proponents suggest.
The benefits of microcredit may operate through mechanisms such as improved risk management and social capital, rather than direct business expansion.