Nomogram to predict risk of 30-day morbidity and mortality for patients with disseminated malignancy undergoing...

To estimate individual risk of 30-day surgical morbidity and mortality after surgical intervention for patients with disseminated malignancy (DMa).

Patients with DMa frequently require surgical consultation for palliative operations. Although these patients are at high risk for surgical morbidity and mortality, limited data exist allowing individual risk stratification.

Using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) from 2005 to 2007, we identified 7447 patients with DMa. Each of the 53 preoperative ACS NSQIP variables was analyzed to assess risk of morbidity and mortality. Logistic regression models were developed using stepwise model selection and generalized additive models. Covariates were evaluated for nonlinearity and interactions among variables. We constructed nomograms utilizing clinically and statistically significant covariates to predict 30-day risk of morbidity and mortality.

Overall 30-day unadjusted morbidity and mortality rates were 28.3% and 8.9%, respectively. Mortality rates reached 18.4% for vascular procedures and 27.9% for emergent operations. Increasing age, impaired functional status, Do-Not-Resuscitate status, impaired respiratory function, ascites, hypoalbuminema, elevated creatinine, and abnormal WBC were all significant predictors (P < 0.0001) of increased morbidity and mortality on multivariate analysis. Nomograms to predict individual 30-day risk of complications and death based on preoperative factors were developed and validated by bootstrapping. Concordance indices were 0.704 and 0.861 for morbidity and mortality, respectively.

Surgical intervention among patients with DMa is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. We have constructed nomograms to predict individual risk of 30-day morbidity and mortality. These have significant implications for surgical decision-making in this group of patients.