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Validation of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score in the TrialNet Natural History Study

Jay M Sosenko¹, Jay S Skyler, Jeffrey Mahon

¹University of Miami, Miami, FL, USA. jsosenko@med.miami.edu

|June 18, 2011

Abstract

Objective:

We assessed the accuracy of the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS), developed from the Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1), in the TrialNet Natural History Study (TNNHS).

Research Design And Methods:

Prediction accuracy of the DPTRS was assessed with receiver-operating characteristic curve areas. The type 1 diabetes cumulative incidence within the DPTRS intervals was compared between the TNNHS and DPT-1 cohorts.

Results:

Receiver-operating characteristic curve areas for the DPTRS were substantial in the TNNHS (P < 0.001 at both 2 and 3 years). The type 1 diabetes cumulative incidence did not differ significantly between the TNNHS and DPT-1 cohorts within DPTRS intervals. In the TNNHS, 2-year and 3-year risks were low for DPTRS intervals <6.50 (<0.10 and <0.20, respectively). Thresholds ≥7.50 were indicative of high risk in both cohorts (2-year risks: 0.49 in the TNNHS and 0.51 in DPT-1).

Conclusions:

The DPTRS is an accurate and robust predictor of type 1 diabetes in autoantibody-positive populations.

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