Trajectory and predictors of depression in a 12-month prospective study after the Madrid March 11 terrorist attacks

Few longitudinal studies have examined the trajectory of and the risk factors for depression in a representative sample of the population exposed to terrorism. A 12 month prospective study was conducted among a sample of Madrid city residents after the March 11, 2004 terrorist attacks. We aimed to document the trajectories of depressive symptoms and determine the risk factors associated with these trajectories.

We conducted telephone surveys among a representative sample of Madrid citizens (N = 1589) to recruit baseline respondents approximately 1 month after the March 11 terrorist attacks. Participants were re-contacted at 6 and 12 months after baseline for further telephone interviews.

Findings reveal heterogeneity in the longitudinal trajectories of depression ranging from the absence of depressive symptoms over time, to transient or chronic depression. Life and recent stressors, experiencing direct exposure to the attacks, personality traits, poor physical health and other psychological disorders were principally associated with a worse trajectory of depression after this event.

Consistent with a stress diathesis model, ongoing stressors and intense event exposure are key drivers of a chronic depression trajectory after a mass traumatic event.