Seventeen-year clinical outcome of schizophrenia in Bali

To examine the 17-year clinical outcome of schizophrenia and its predictors in Bali.

Subjects were 59 consecutively admitted first-episode schizophrenia patients. Their clinical outcome was evaluated by standardized symptomatic remission criteria based on Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) scores and operational functional remission criteria at 17-year follow-up. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) over 17 years was also calculated as another index of clinical outcome.

Among these 59 patients, 43 (72.9%) could be followed-up, 15 (25.4%) had died, and one (1.7%) was alive but refused to participate in the study. Combined remission (i.e. symptomatic and functional remission) was achieved in 14 patients (23.7% of original sample). Duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) was a significant baseline predictor of combined remission. Mean age at death of deceased subjects was 35.7, and SMR was 4.85 (95% CI: 2.4-7.3), indicating that deaths were premature. Longer DUP was associated with excess mortality.

The long-term outcome of schizophrenia in Bali was heterogeneous, demonstrating that a quarter achieved combined remission, half were in nonremission, and a quarter had died at 17-year follow-up. DUP was a significant predictor both for combined remission and mortality.