QSPR for predicting chloroform formation in drinking water disinfection

Chlorination is the most widely used technique for water disinfection, but may lead to the formation of chloroform (trichloromethane; TCM) and other by-products. This article reports the first quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) for predicting the formation of TCM in chlorinated drinking water. Model compounds (n = 117) drawn from 10 literature sources were divided into training data (n = 90, analysed by five-way leave-many-out internal cross-validation) and external validation data (n = 27). QSPR internal cross-validation had Q² = 0.94 and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.09 moles TCM per mole compound, consistent with external validation Q2 of 0.94 and RMSE of 0.08 moles TCM per mole compound, and met criteria for high predictive power and robustness. In contrast, log TCM QSPR performed poorly and did not meet the criteria for predictive power. The QSPR predictions were consistent with experimental values for TCM formation from tannic acid and for model fulvic acid structures. The descriptors used are consistent with a relatively small number of important TCM precursor structures based upon 1,3-dicarbonyls or 1,3-diphenols.