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Updated: May 31, 2026
11:21
Methodology for Establishing a Community-Wide Life Laboratory for Capturing Unobtrusive and Continuous Remote Activity and Health Data
Published on: July 27, 2018
Measuring and modelling occupancy time in NHS continuing healthcare.
Salma Chahed1, Eren Demir, Thierry J Chaussalet
1Department of Information Systems and Computing, University of Westminster, 115 New Cavendish Street, London W1W 6UW, UK.
BMC Health Services Research
|July 1, 2011
Summary
NHS continuing healthcare systems can now better forecast patient numbers and budget for care. A length of stay model accurately predicts how long patients remain in care, aiding resource allocation.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Health Economics
- Public Health
Background:
- Increasing demand and financial constraints challenge NHS continuing healthcare systems.
- Accurate forecasting of patient demand and budgeting for care are critical.
- Understanding patient length of stay is key to service planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate patient length of stay in NHS continuing healthcare.
- To develop a predictive model for patient numbers in care.
- To support budgeting and resource allocation for healthcare services.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of anonymised data for 11,289 patients in placement and home care (2005-2008).
- Application of length of stay (LoS) modelling to estimate patient retention probabilities.
- Forecasting of future patient numbers based on estimated probabilities.
Main Results:
- Identified three patient categories based on length of stay: short-term, medium-term, and long-term.
- Observed variations in discharge and transition rates across care types and groups.
- Demonstrated a close agreement between observed and predicted patient numbers, indicating a robust model.
Conclusions:
- The developed LoS model effectively supports Primary Care Trusts in London for budget planning.
- The model enhances responsiveness to increasing demand within resource limitations.
- Potential applicability extends to hospital care and re-ablement services, with further refinement planned.
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