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Related Experiment Video

Updated: May 31, 2026

Measurement of the Directional Information Flow in fNIRS-Hyperscanning Data using the Partial Wavelet Transform Coherence Method
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Published on: September 3, 2021

Pattern in escalations in insurgent and terrorist activity.

Neil Johnson1, Spencer Carran, Joel Botner

  • 1Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|July 2, 2011
PubMed
Summary

Fatal attack timing can be predicted by analyzing time differences between lethal events. This pattern helps estimate escalation rates for insurgent and terrorist group activities.

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Area of Science:

  • Military operations analysis
  • Conflict studies
  • Dynamical systems theory

Background:

  • Accurate prediction of fatal attacks is crucial for effective military planning and resource allocation.
  • Understanding the temporal dynamics of lethal events aids in anticipating future conflict escalation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify a predictable pattern in the timing of fatal attacks.
  • To develop a method for estimating the escalation rate and timing of lethal activities by insurgent and terrorist groups.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of time differences between fatal attacks.
  • Examination of data from insurgent groups in Afghanistan and Iraq.
  • Inclusion of data from worldwide terrorist group activities.

Main Results:

  • A simple dynamical pattern was uncovered in the time intervals between fatal attacks.
  • The time difference between fatal attacks serves as a potent indicator of future lethal activity pace.
  • The pattern is observable in both regional (Afghanistan, Iraq) and global (worldwide terrorist groups) contexts.

Conclusions:

  • The temporal spacing of fatal attacks offers a valuable metric for predicting conflict escalation.
  • This finding can enhance military planning by providing insights into the likely pace of future lethal activities.
  • The identified dynamical pattern has broad applicability across different conflict zones and types of non-state armed groups.