The complex analytical landscape of gene flow inference

Gene flow estimation is essential for characterizing local adaptation, speciation potential and connectivity among threatened populations. New model-based population genetic methods can resolve complex demographic histories, but many studies in fields such as landscape genetics continue to rely on simple rules of thumb focused on gene flow to explain patterns of spatial differentiation. Here, we show how methods that use gene genealogies can reveal cryptic demographic histories and provide better estimates of gene flow with other parameters that contribute to genetic variation across landscapes and seascapes. We advocate for the expanded use and development of methods that consider spatial differentiation as the product of multiple forces interacting over time, and caution against a routine reliance on post-hoc gene flow interpretations.