Modeling max-of-N fluence distribution using measured shot-to-shot beam contrast

We have found the local temporal shot-to-shot variation of the NIF high-energy laser system to be relatively constant (~3.4% to 4.2% of the mean fluence). We have developed a statistical model that predicts the maximum fluence distribution any particular location will be exposed to after N independent shots (the so-called max-of-N fluence distribution) using the measured shot-to-shot variance; this method allows for an estimate of maximum optics fluence exposure.