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Updated: May 31, 2026
A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Seasonality of admissions with multiple sclerosis in Scotland
Adam E Handel1, Giulio Disanto, Lynne Jarvis
1Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Background And Purpose:
Previous studies have described a seasonal pattern of MS relapse risk. Vitamin D and infectious triggers are two major candidate environmental risk factors proposed to account for this effect. We aimed to assess MS admissions in Scotland for a possible effect of seasonality.
Methods:
Acute admissions with MS were obtained from the Scottish Morbidity Register between 1997 and 2009. We compared the pattern of these to admissions with other diagnoses.
Results:
We obtained data on 7098 MS and 6 243 690 non-MS acute and day-case admissions. We found a significant difference in acute MS admissions compared with admissions with other diagnoses (P = 0.0015). There was a significant excess of Scottish MS admissions in April and June with nadirs in March and October.
Conclusions:
Admissions with MS show a significant seasonal variation throughout the year. Further work will be needed to identify candidate environmental factors with certainty.
