[Problems of clinical prognosis in endogenous diseases with predominant affective disorders in childhood]

Based on a ++clinico-statistical analysis of patients (n-159) with cyclothymia and schizophrenia with predominant affective symptomatology who fell ill in childhood and were followed up for 5 to 18 years the main tendencies of the disease course and different patterns of the personality dynamics were discovered, correlating with a number of the premorbid characteristics and the structure of the first attack. The mathematic treatment using the Boolean model enabled one to obtain a prognostic model which may form the basis for the expert system to objectively evaluate, specify and accelerate the process of individual forecasting in the endogenous affective syndromes in childhood. The author provides evidence for relativity of the alternative importance of the clinical signs whose genuine prognostic weight only becomes known in diverse combinations with the other signs.